The Senate's Shifting Majority (12/10/02)

by Dean Hartwell

In last month’s elections Republicans took back control of the United States Senate.  They now hold 51 of the chamber’s 100 seats.

But, not all Republicans and Democrats vote the “party line.”  Who are the Senators that will tip the balance toward one of the parties?

Independent Republicans

Start with maverick John McCain, who has already publicly scolded President Bush for his handling of an appointment to the Federal Election Commission even before the start of the new Congress.  With the long history of bad blood between the Senator and the President, his vote will never be a sure one for Bush.  Studies by Project Voter Smart show that McCain voted with the majority of his fellow Republicans only 67 percent of the time (compared to a 98 percent showing by Republican Leader Trent Lott).

Then there is Lincoln Chafee, senator from Rhode Island.  His strong stand against drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refugee did not please President Bush, nor the solid majority of Republicans who favored it.  He also supports a strong patient’s bill of rights and introduced legislation to give regulatory power over tobacco to the Food and Drug Administration.  Chafee voted with the majority of Republicans only fifty percent of the time.

Olympia Snowe, a Senator from Maine has voted pro-choice consistently.  In recent years, she has voted against maintaining a ban on abortions on military bases, against banning “partial birth” abortions and against disallowing overseas military abortions.  She has voted with most Republicans a rather low 64 percent of the time.

Reagan Democrats

The Democratic Party has had problems of its own with members who have kept the party affiliation but have voted like Republicans.  Senator John Breaux of Louisiana voted for then-President Reagan’s tax cuts, saying his vote could not be bought, but it "can be rented."

Other Democrats in the House and the Senate in effect gave the Republicans control of the House and Senate during the Reagan and Bush I years on key votes.  It explains how a majority could vote to use force against Iraq in 1991 and how Clarence Thomas could get confirmation to the Supreme Court during years when the Democrats held control of both houses.

Currently, the Democrat in the Senate who wears the label “Reagan Democrat” most proudly is Senator Zell Miller of Georgia.  In fact, he has voted with the Republicans so often that the Bush Administration has tried unsuccessfully to get him to change his party.  Last year, he voted with the majority of Democrats a paltry 42 percent of the time.

With a new Congress about to begin, the Bush Administration has a major challenge in keeping the Independent Republicans in line.  Defections, unreliable votes and other surprises will add and subtract from the most important number in the Senate: the number 51.

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